Presentation Date: Feb 14, 2026
AGSA Abstract
Nuisance flooding is becoming an increasing issue for many coastal communities worldwide, as relative water levels rise due to land subsidence and sea-level rise, leading to high-tide (sunny-day) flooding. This research focuses on developing a methodological framework to quantify flood reduction using green (wetland) and gray infrastructure, or a combination of both. The methodology involves developing a Hybrid-Harmonic Model (HHM) that accounts for tidal and non-tidal residual components of total water level, including sea-level rise (SLR). This fast-running HHM quantifies long-term, high-temporal water level changes over a century. The model is trained using computationally intensive hydrodynamic (Delft3D) model outputs and is developed by calculating tidal constituents based on a series of tidal wetland restoration scenarios for selected future timeframes. These tidal constituents, along with non-tidal residuals derived from the "Time-varying Emulator Model for Short- and Long-term Analysis of Coastal Flood Hazard Potential (TESLA model), were used to predict 10-minute water levels over century-level timescales. The total water level output of this model can be used to assess flood reduction under different wetland restoration scenarios. A case study in Coos Bay, Oregon, demonstrates the model’s application. This type of study is useful for stakeholders to make informed decisions about potential flood risks and demonstrate a suite of green and gray solutions to address nuisance flooding.
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